Holding EVERYONE to higher standards...including and ESPECIALLY me:):):)...
Anonymous points out a possible error in the numbers I consulted from AOL on yesterday's post:) (I must admit, that I know VERY LITTLE about the veracity of AOL reports:):):)...and use them because I use AOL, they show up on my computer as soon as I launch the internet, and because I have been EXHAUSTED the last couple of days:):):)...
I'm looking into the numbers, anonymous...and you may be right that AOL's numbers aren't explained as well in that article as we might like...
GlobalSecurity.org
This gives much more conservative numbers of dead since April...at 178...that's 10% of that number in the last 2 and a half months, rather than the 63% from AOL's reporting, if you're assuming, as I naturally did, that the two sentences in that paragraph -- "The president's campaign comes as the U.S. death toll in Iraq has climbed above 1,700. A relentless wave of suicide bombings, kidnappings and beheadings has killed at least 1,070 just since al-Jaafari's government was announced April 28." -- were modifying each other...
But Melissa and I (meaning she and I had someone to check over our shoulders) got a conservative count of 1002 IRAQIS dead since April of 2005, from IraqiBodyCount.net...
IraqiBodyCount.net
The numbers we counted of Iraqi dead from this website are culled from the conservative numbers in the range -- notice they have a more conservative estimate and a more liberal estimate and an overall range -- AND we did not count the 57-60 bodies of Iraqis found in the Tigris River, between Al Wihda and Hafriyah with estimated deaths between February 2005 and April 2005 (because of the uncertainty of the times of their deaths), found at the bottom of this page...
57-60 Iraqis found in the Tigris River between Al-Wihda and Hafriyah between February 27 and April 20, 2005...
...so the 1070 number may be referring to:
1) number of Iraqi dead since the elections...
2) number of Iraqi and American soldiers dead since the elections...
3) number of Iraqi and Americans, generally, dead since the elections...
4) number of Iraqi and others, generally, dead since the elections...
...or 5) a WHOLE HOST of other possible permutations...
...quite the difference:)...so you may be right:)...I'll keep looking into it:):)...as your post illustrates...a diversity of sources is a much better accuracy check:):):)...
Your best case from the GlobalSecurity.org numbers is in those last three months, which I think you are right FLATLY CONTRADICTS my case in the immediately earlier post I made -- though not the general case that the situation has gotten worse, in general, I don't believe -- based on those AOL numbers...
The OVERALL trend, anonymous, is still not looking good...and the last three months seems, just going by these more conservative numbers, again, and not consulting a more diverse array of sources, as I think you WISELY consult me to do:):):)...the last three months seems to indicate that the more democratic the conditions in this war -- meaning post-election -- the more successfully the war is engaged:)...
...which IS a good sign...since the holding a democratic elections instead of undemocratic occupation -- as many of the President's detractors claim -- is a very important step forwards democratically...and something the President should be credited for, I believe:):):)...and the numbers seem to bear out a correlation between increased democracy and decreased deaths...
Which should be a lesson for President Bush on other democratic policy engagement as well:):):)...
Meaning...as he engages more democratically with the world, with the United Nations, with the media, with the policy and academic world, with his critics as well as his defenders...and as his defenders and critics do that same:):):)...
The better the trend gets, we hope, in Iraq:):):)...
In the meantime...even by those more conservative numbers, you still have a steadily increasing or stable trend...meaning, the trend is not yet better, overall, though I hope, as I'm sure you do, that the last three months DO signal a turnaround...though it is still FAR TOO EARLY to assess that, in my judgment, given the variation within the trendlines up to this point...overall, up to this point, things have, unfortunately, gotten worse -- and still within the narrower trendline of just the last three months that are not projected (June, since it is not completed and we're only a little over halfway through the month, is a projected number, as you'll see in that graph)...though the actual numbers for those WOUNDED in the war is decreasing within the last three months for which actual numbers are given, notice -- if you check out the graph those numbers at the bottom of that page, anonymous, I think it will make it clearer:)...
I'm kind of exhausted, right now, to do a more sophistated statistical analysis:)...
But the general theme is that the trend is not looking good, no matter how you spin those numbers...
And if your only standard, anonymous, is how much worse things have been in past wars, are you forever content that people die independent of efforts to avoid their deaths?...
Meaning...
Are you more interested in defending the policy choices made in this war than you are in saving more soldiers' and American's and Iraqis' lives?...
Is that how mediocre a performance that you will make excuses for, anonymous?...
I would suggest that you hold the President to the SAME HIGH STANDARD:):):)...that you RIGHTLY hold me to:):):)...
If your fine with that number of soldiers, Americans, Iraqis, commerical workers, aid workers, international observers, etc. dying, then BY ALL MEANS:):):)...just defend the President's failures, along with RIGHTLY cheering his successes:):):)...
But if you're interested in saving lives, anonymous:):):)...
Then pitch in with the efforts by liberals, conservatives, independents, radicals, libertarians, anarchists, and all kinds of folks to constructively criticize this war, make it a stronger effort...and save more lives:):):):):):):)...
Last thing I'll say on this, for now:):):)...
As I was just telling Melissa:):):)...
I DON'T WANT to be right that the deaths and injuries to many folks in Iraq, today, could have been/could be avoided...
I WANT to be wrong...because for me to be wrong means that we really do have THE BEST policy now...and no substantial improvements can be made on it...
I would LOVE to have that kind of international policy, no matter who was President and no matter what conditions this war was under...
And I think I've MORE than proven my mettle with praising good ideas and policies from this President -- I am more favorable about the President's Social Security plan, for instance, than many conservatives, I know and that I can imagine from the poll numbers, given the general unpopularity of that plan, right now...and I've DEFENDED the President's open criticism of regimes like North Korea's, Russia's, Iran's, etc., even when many liberals have been critical for reasons that I only partly understand (establishing a better relationship, up front, is DEFINITELY the best way to criticize, I think, diplomatically or not...and the President has DEFINITELY screwed up many if not most of those relationships, right now...but having said, the criticisms of these regimes is constructive and important to say publicly, I think:):):) -- so this is NOT a partisan criticism of the Administration's policies...
...it is an honest criticism from an honest observer...
And I think I demonstrate in this post...that I try to build the BEST CASE for those who disagree with me or with whom I disagree so that we all get to the BEST ARGUMENTS, possible...
I have NO INTEREST in "being right"...and EVERY INTEREST in getting to the best policies and the most accurate numbers and interpretation of numbers...
And ANY GODDAMN THING which will save more lives in Iraq, from here on out...
ALL OF OUR INTERESTS, in democratic discussions, is getting to the BEST, the TRUEST, the FAIREST, the most DECENT, the most PLAUSIBLE, the most CONSTRUCTIVE, the LEAST DANGEROUS, the FULLEST and MOST THOROUGH explanations and arguments and cases and hypotheses and theories and ideas, possible...
Because THAT is what will make for genuine progress...
And in this case...
THAT is what will save lives...
And that is something that we should ALL find agreement on, I would hope:):):)...
Have a great day, everyone:):):)...
Love,
Ben
YESTERDAY'S POST...care of Building a Better World...The Virgin Experience
Bush Will Focus on Iraq "Victory"
63% -- 1070 of 1700 -- U.S. casualties occurred in the last month and a half since the recent Iraqi elections at the very end of April...
And the President wants to assure the country that things in Iraq are going much better than planned:):):)...
How badly did you plan for things in Iraq, Mr. President?:):):)...
Oh...sorry I asked, dude:):):)...
Love,
Ben
