Because liberal values serve us better

A really impressive analysis of the unfolding events inside of Iran, events far more important than anything Washington has up its sleeve.

Iran's leaders are worried about history's forward march

"The greatest difference between 2009 and 1979 was created by the revolution itself. Revolutions give birth to a new political class, and Iran’s Islamic revolution was no exception.

The Iranian leadership formed after the revolution consisted of a narrow ruling stratum and a much broader supporting group that was given charge of administration and political mobilization.

In the 20 years since Khomeini’s death, the composition of this political class has changed drastically. The clerical elite has gradually lost power to the military-security groups, from whose ranks the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, emerged. Bureaucratic and security services dominated by the Revolutionary Guards and its militia, the Basij (the Mobilization Corps), are now firmly in command.

The supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, blessed the Revolutionary Guards’ decision to steal the presidential election. By identifying squarely with the military-security apparatus headed by Ahmadinejad, Khamenei has alienated an important segment of the ruling clerical elite. He has also reduced his own status as the ultimate arbiter in Iranian society, a role that was central to Khomeini’s dominance of the system. As a result, he has produced a rupture between the two pillars of the revolutionary regime: the clerical elite and the military-security structure.

The growth of Khamenei’s personal, extra-constitutional power introduces a strong element of uncertainty into Iran’s future. Political regimes that rely on personal power – commonly known as dictatorships – prove to be fragile in crisis. This was the weakness of the shah’s regime, which collapsed as he became paralyzed in his decision-making. There was nothing behind him supporting the system.

Khamenei’s backing of the June 2009 putsch now appears to have been a costly mistake. With this single error, he has undermined what had appeared to be a robust post-revolutionary course for the first and only theocracy in modern history. The cries of “God is great!” have now been overtaken by chants of “Death to the dictator!” in recent demonstrations in Tehran, Tabriz, Shiraz and other Iranian cities.

The Iranian regime is now critically dependent on decisions made by one man, the supreme leader, Khamenei. For that reason, it is demonstrating a degree of fragility that is comparable to the shah’s regime in the latter part of the 1970s.

Most spokespersons of the Green protest movement advocate civil disobedience instead of revolution. Earlier this month, Ezattolah Sahabi, who was a member of the revolutionary provisional government in 1979, issued a statement in Tehran stating categorically that 'a revolution in today’s Iran is neither possible nor desirable.' At roughly the same time, five prominent opposition intellectuals living in exile released a reformist, not revolutionary, manifesto directed against the 'despotic guardians.'

But there is little chance that these children of the Islamic revolution – who have become graying reformists – will remain in control of the Green movement, which now reflects the aspirations of a post-revolutionary generation of young women and men and students.

The ayatollah-dictator and the Revolutionary Guards have tried their best to discredit their opponents by concocting, through forced confessions at show trials, a conspiracy of regime change based on a 'velvet revolution' produced by 'Western social sciences.'

Deep down, they know there is no conspiracy. Their fear is grounded in what they see in front of them: the forward march of history."

Whether people know it or not, the 21st century will be a vindication of the same principle that the 20th century vindicated: the end of force as a governing philosophy. And it doesn't matter who is taking up that banner. They will all fall. Every single one of them. One strong man at a time.

Because liberal values serve us better. All cynical calculations to the contrary.