The way forward in Afghanistan
Steve Coll has a remarkably well-reasoned and thoroughly knowledgeable essay about Afghanistan and our future course in the current issue of Foreign Policy.
The Case for Humility in Afghanistan
"To improve its chances for success, the United States and the international community must bring all of their leverage to bear to ensure the formation of a coalition government in Kabul that incorporates all of the meaningful sources of non-Taliban opposition and sets Afghan political and tribal leaders on a sustained, Afghan-led program of political, constitutional, and electoral reform.
Some analysts have suggested invoking the Afghan institution of a loya jirga to host some or all of this continuous reform process. Whether that specific institution is selected or not, the spirit of this suggestion is critical -- Afghans have many difficult but important political and constitutional issues to negotiate, and political business-as-usual will not carry these negotiations forward adequately at a time when the United States is risking blood and treasure in support of Afghan stability. Issues that require discussion and negotiation among Afghan leaders, both formal and informal, include the future of the electoral system, to ensure fraud on the scale alleged in the most recent election cannot recur; political party formation and activity; constitutional issues such as the election of governors and the role of parliament; and issues of national integrity such as the access of different ethnic, tribal and identity groups to government employment and opportunity in the expanding security services.
Political reform and Afghan-led negotiations of this type must be seen as fundamental to American policy in Afghanistan no matter what choices are made about troop levels and deployments. Such a process would be part and parcel, too, of national program of reconciliation and reintegration designed to provide ways for Taliban foot soldiers to find jobs and for their leaders to forswear violence and enter politics.
This emphasis on political stability through continuous Afghan-led negotiation and national reintegration, as opposed to grandiose state-building or policies premised on the pursuit of military victory by external forces, should not be seen as an adjunct wing of U.S. policy in Afghanistan, but as fundamental. It is clear that no realistic level of American and Afghan forces deployable in the foreseeable future can provide security to the population in every village of Afghanistan. Accepting this reality and developing a political-military strategy that best accounts for it will lead, inevitably, to support for Afghan-led political approaches at the national, provincial, district and sub-district level. This is how the late Gorbachev-backed government in Kabul achieved a modicum of stability in far less favorable circumstances.
America's record of policy failure in Afghanistan and Pakistan during the last 30 years should humble all of us. It should bring humility to the way we define our goals and realism about the means required to achieve them. It should lead us to choose political approaches over kinetic military ones, urban population security over provocative rural patrolling, and Afghan and Pakistani solutions over American blueprints. But it should not lead us to defeatism or to acquiescence in a violent or forcible Taliban takeover of either country. We have the means to prevent that, and it is in our interest to do so."
The only argument I have with Steve's reasoning is that if you read the entirety of this article - which I highly encourage if you care about the fate of Afghanistan and American troops rooting out our Al Queda enemies and their allies in the Taliban there - the only consistent conclusion you can come to from the entirety of that argument - which I largely agree with; the thrust of which being that all of our efforts must make central the political task of a self-determining Afghani effort to reconcile their ethnic and political differences to create a pluralistic, strong Afghani government capable of offering security to its population and developing a process by which its serious divisions can be healed, over time - such an effort cannnot be secured, as Steve suggests in that first line I quoted, with external Western pressure.
To the contrary, the entirety of Steve's article illustrates the successive folly of various outside forces from imposing or pressuring their will externally and how this has bred the mistrust in foreign armies that is now the central problem America is contending with.
Meaning, we are very unlikely to get ourselves out of that mess if we make the same mistakes that caused this mess in the first place.
Americans and the West need to get on the up and up and be cooperating honestly with competing Afghani political parties to work on building a self-determining Afghani government rather than expecting the Afghanis to be patrons of our largesse and subjects to our leverage. As Steve argues well in this article, I believe, both are bad courses, of the long haul.
Instead of Americans focussing on what they can do to stabilize Afghanistan, what Steve is saying well in this article that deserves our attention, I think, is America should focus on what it can do to support Afghanis to address the political divisions and the military strategies, with American help, when necessary, to secure their country and create a pluralistic Afghani future of their own choosing that looks after the interests of all Afghanis, and seeks to destroy, arrest, and, when possible, coopt or moderate the Taliban and their supporters as a necessary prerequisite to looking after those Afghanis' interests.
The way through in Afghanistan and Iraq is to get more honest with ourselves about the extent to which we have engaged these wars more self-centeredly and to get less self-centered in our engagement.
If we want Afghanis to trust us, we need to be trustworthy. And that is the only honest way to success.