The smart way out

Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security advisor to President Carter and respected foreign policy thinker, makes, for me, the first coherent and thoughtful argument for the advantages of an American pullout from Iraq.

The Smart Way Out of a Foolish War

It is nice to finally see someone make the argument, rather than just assert a partisan line as a reaction against an opposition policy, which is too often the way things are done in American politics and Washington, generally.

On Iran and Israel and Palestine (at the end of the article), I think Brzezinski is undeniably right and it is nice to see someone argue openly for the position he takes on Iran, of open negotiations.

On Iraq, I still think he's wrong.

It's a tough call, I know. Will leaving breed action on the part of Iraqi security forces and reduce dependency on American forces? Maybe. It's a tempting line of reasoning, I have to admit. It is essentially what liberals have been arguing since they've called for a pullout.

The problem is that they really don't know that. It's a policy position liberals have been taking in contrast to the Administration and they are bullshitting if they say that they know that Iraqis will step up to the plate and shed their dependency on American troops if Americans leave.

The truth is they don't know. They, just like everyone else in politics and too often in life, me especially, talk and write like they know more than they do. Pretty common in politics, really. I encourage everyone to note it and be skeptical of it in my own writing.

The likelihood is so uncertain on such a call, that when the stakes are this high, my call goes to the people doing the work, first and foremost, meaning both Iraqi security forces and the government responsible for them and American forces, both of whom, who, by and large, also disagree with Brzezinski's call, here. Brzezinski might be angling for a job with an Obama administration. But he seems to genuinely believe what he is arguing, here, enough, that I might give him the benefit of the doubt. It also might be somewhere in between as it, sadly, often is in politics (cynical reasoning is not new to Washington, as you may have noticed).

But the fact of the matter is that the people who do the security work that Zbigniew is commenting on, here, in a thoughtful Washington Post article, to be sure, but not security work that he does day-in-day-out as those Iraqi and American soldiers are doing there in Iraq, say that he is wrong. And I trust them better, is the truth. They are the only crew I really trust more wholeheartedly through this whole godforesaken mess. One of the reasons I just might join them after my stint here at Cap City, if that is feasible and my most reasonable path for my life, by my lights.

And it makes sense. When the Iraqis are ready to take over, they will say so. When the American forces think they are ready to take over, they will say so.

But magically wishing that they will stand on their own two feet, when they may not know everything they need to know or be reasonably prepared for everything they need to be reasonably prepared for to make that a reality in a very complicated and difficult security mission, is wishful thinking, I think, on Zbigniew's and most liberals thinking, frankly, that pretends far more certainty than they could actually ever have.

The truth is that most people do not really know what to do next. And liberals in Washington are often just as arrogant as the conservatives in Washington who started this goddamn war. Like those conservatives, they often have good intentions. But like those conservatives, those intentions often are not matched with better understanding or results. And like those conservatives, they are generally loathe to admit when they are wrong or have fucked up.

I have every reason to trust those American and Iraqi soldiers, on this one, and every reason to be skeptical of both Brzezinski and liberals who reason like this without accounting for the legitimately experienced and knowledgeable skepticism of those troops.

Zbigniew Brzezinski might not be a bad advisor to a candidate or President Obama, just as Joe Nye might not have been a bad advisor to a candidate Hillary Clinton.

But that doesn't mean they are right about a pullout.

And there is every reason to believe that those troops know better what they are talking about doing the work, day-in and day-out.

My colleagues have all kinds of reasoning I don't agree with. But I also know that, for the most part, they know what they're doing better than most people who write about, critique, and otherwise comment from the sidelines on our work. And I'm quite confident that the same is true, generally, among those troops in Iraq, as well.

Politicians play politics. That's the problem. They get too wrapped up in their bullshit and the bullshit that too often substitutes itself for substance in politics. That's the problem with power. It makes cowards and bullshitters out of all of us.

And that's why it's a safer bet to trust those who have less reason to bullshit and more commitment to getting the job done right. Those people are the American and Iraqi troops, by my lights.

But I do appreciate finally hearing on argument, on this question. Makes the discussion that much more reasonable to have someone take thinking about it seriously.