Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Gambatte kudasai

Or good luck. As Milton Friedman might say.

Barack Obama-san

Brilliant article. My favorite bit:

"November 1999: 18 trillion yen. In a "last push," Mr. Obuchi's government spent 7.4 trillion yen to prop up businesses, 6.8 trillion yen for social infrastructure projects like telecommunications and environmental projects, and two trillion yen for housing loans, among other things. Debt-to-GDP reached 128.3%.

Japan's economy grow anemically over that decade, but as the nearby chart shows, its national debt exploded. Only in this decade, with a monetary reflation and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's decision to privatize state assets and force banks to acknowledge their bad debts, did the economy recover. Yet recent governments have rolled back Mr. Koizumi's reforms and returned to their spending habits. But Japan does have better roads."

You gotta read the whole thing.

At bottom, social science is like car mechanics. Either you get the car to go or you don't. And no matter how much you bullshit your friends that you know your way under that hood, when the car won't run, people stop listening.

Or as the Wall Street Journal would put it:

"Now we're told that a similar spending program -- a new New Deal -- will revive the U.S. economy. How do you say 'good luck' in Japanese?"

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