The power of honest thought
Roger Cohen has an excellent column in the International Herald Tribune, this morning, and the strongest argument I have heard, yet, for an Obama Presidency.
Imaginary snipers, real challenges
He writes:
"Here's some news for Hillary Clinton: The Bosnian war was over in 1996.
Those of us, like myself, who first went to Bosnia at the start of the war in 1992 and then, in 1994 and 1995, endured Bill Clinton's circumlocutions as we sat in an encircled Sarajevo watching pregnant women getting blown away by shelling from Serbian gunners, know that.
We know that as President Clinton mumbled about "enmities that go back 500 years, some would say almost a thousand years," Bosnia burned. We know what that talk of intractable grievances dating back to 995 was meant to communicate: No Western intervention could achieve anything in the Balkan pit.
Only after the mass murder of Bosnian Muslims at Srebrenica, three years after the initial Serbian genocide of 1992 against that population (and one year after a genocide on his watch in Rwanda), did the gelatinous Clinton develop some backbone. NATO bombed, Richard Holbrooke did his brilliant work at Dayton in November 1995, and the guns fell silent in Bosnia.
So, yes, the war was well and truly over when Hillary Clinton arrived in the northeastern Bosnian town of Tuzla on March 25, 1996. It was over, although she recently recalled "landing under sniper fire." It was over when "we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base."
Oh, please. Researching a book, I also visited that base in 1996 to talk to Major General William Nash, then the commander of U.S. troops in Bosnia. If you'd lived the war, the base was a small miracle of American order and security...
...Clinton made up Bosnian sniper fire in an attempt to show that she's tougher than Barack Obama; that she's a hardened, seasoned, putative commander-in-chief ready to respond to crisis when the "red phone" of her fear-mongering ad rings.
John McCain's own recent "misspeaking" about Iran, placing (Sunni) Al Qaeda in (Shiite) Iran, also smacked of muscle-flexing: He wanted to signal toughness to the mullahs in Tehran, where Obama has suggested he'd seek dialogue.
But what the United States, and those that look to it, need now is not more braggadocio from the White House. We've had a seven-year dose. That's enough.
What's needed, rather, is some new, creative thinking about a changed world in which authoritarianism is enjoying a renaissance and America and its allies need to work together to spread peace, prosperity, freedom, equity, security and, yes, democracy.
U.S. hard power has not worked. The Iraq invasion was bungled. European soft power is insufficient.
As Constanze Stelzenmüller of the German Marshall Fund notes in an important recent essay called "Trans-Atlantic Power Failures," a "European Union with 27 member states and a total of 1.8 million men and women under arms" is incapable of pacifying little Kosovo ("one quarter the size of Switzerland") on its own.
The trans-Atlantic bond of Cold War years is gone forever. The alliance is going to be looser, more pragmatic. But it has to find "the right mix of idealism and realism," and a new cohesion, if one-pipeline Russia and one-party, Tibet-tormenting China are not to prosper with authoritarianism-for-export.
Foreign policy debate in this election campaign has been paltry. I'd like to hear something about GWOT - the "Global War on Terror" - the heart of U.S. national security strategy. It amounts to war without end because "terror" is a tactic and tactics don't surrender. GWOT should be abandoned: It's externally divisive and internally treacherous. Al Qaeda can be beaten sans GWOT.
I'd like some discussion of what NATO might do to help spread the Iraqi burden and ease a gradual extrication of most U.S. troops from Iraq.
On issues that cross borders - terrorism, financial market volatility, global warming - and on Iran, Israel-Palestine, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq - three things are essential: a new moral authority in the White House, the capacity for original strategic thought, and a 21st-century understanding of the border-jumping networks that have knit humanity into new relationships.
Obama, in his speech on race, did important things. He confronted reality, thought big, probed division, sketched convergence. He took Americans and many people beyond U.S. shores to a different mental place. Imagine that capacity applied to GWOT, Iran, Russia, China and Israel-Palestine.
If you don't like the sound of that, there's always seasoned swagger of the kind that runs from imaginary snipers."
Banking on the promise of Obama's stronger thought process is tempting for me. I'd be more willing to do it if he wasn't pressuring for a pull-out. It's clear, from his last ditch political maneuvering, this primary, that Obama is politician as much as honest leader, so I don't know exactly what to trust with him, anymore. That's the downside to playing conventional politics. And it's a downside that Obama is stuck with, at this point, until I'm clear that he's more on the up and up.
But I do know that I will not vote for a politician pressuring or calling for pullout to appease war-weariness in lieu of leadership.
Leadership does not mean doing what is popular. Leadership may account for popular opinion. But leadership, by definition, means having vision of a genuinely better path and persuading others of that path.
Pull-out is not a better path. I have not seen one strong argument on pull-out that would, in the least, justify, honestly, good that it would do for Iraqis or American soldiers or the rest of the world. I have seen plenty of rationalizations for war-weariness. I have seen plenty of emnity for George Bush and Republicans. I have seen plenty of bullshit "peace at all costs" arguments from the left. But I have yet to see an honest and strong argument for pullout that demonstrates benefit for Iraqis, Americans, or anyone else, for that matter, other than the butchers ready to slaughter more Iraqis in the name of any number of ugly causes.
Barack Obama knows that, I imagine, though there is no way for me to be sure of that or anything from him or any leader or any person as long as it contradicts their word. And if I take Barack Obama at his word, he is pulling out American troops from Iraq. And without making that argument.
John McCain is not pulling out. There are plenty of concerns I have about a McCain presidency. But pulling out of Iraq is not one I have to worry about.
I am tired of politics as a bullshit business of lying and divination. I do not trust politicians, at this point, except by what they say. And if that bothers them, they can start getting more honest.
It is power and its seductive call that allows people to rationalize both their dishonesty and, as a consequence, their dishonest reasoning about power and its consequences.
And I have no interest in being a part of that, anymore, as much as I can avoid it.
I'd love to have Barack's creative and intelligent thought to unravel so many international security messes we find ourselves in, today.
But not at the expense of the soldiers that he or any President send into harms way to do the life-threatening work that they commit them to and not at the expense of the lives of Iraqis who have found themselves a part of a civil war that many of them did not ask for and had no role in creating.
If Barack wants my vote, he needs to earn it. Same goes for any candidate for any office.
And, at this point, in history, given the depths of bullshit that it is clear to me occupies political circles, they either need to be honest with me and the American people more or expect me to take even their benign lies as truth until they can demonstrate different.
I am tired of settling for a politics that confuses lies with truth, too often, because the participants lose track as everyone comes to confuse bullshit with something more honest.
Thought has the power to imagine our way out of our often tragic situations in life and create something better. Barack has that power, if he so chooses. So does John McCain.
The question is whom understands the problems of power and security, and so many of the policy issues we face, better and can lead us out of those problems.
These two candidates split the difference of a political system too geared around power and not geared nearly enough around substantial thought. John McCain splits that difference slightly better, for me, at this point. Barack Obama could do the same if his serious thinking does more than just try to affirm a liberal or Democratic Presidency, neither of which are compelling reasons to me, at this point, for an American President or for electing any world leader.
What I need is more honest discussion and debate and more honestly better ideas. Whoever has those, will get my vote, generally.
The lying has consequence. And it clearly has and and does all through our culture. Ignoring that or pretending that the law or force or whatever damned fool pretense that someone has about what will make us more honest is doomed to more of the same.
If we like the way things are, we should just continue pretending like somehow things are better than they are or that we are not responsible for how shitty things are, today.
Both are tempting lines of reason. Both are bullshit.
And I want leaders who are ready to end the bullshit.
May the best candidate win.