The Economist offers some sober reflection on the attacks in Mumbai.
Mumbai counts the costs
"India’s friends and neighbours can hope for a measured reaction, but they should not assume it. After an attack on its national parliament in 2001, India mobilised hundreds of thousands of troops on the border with Pakistan. The Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), then in power, routinely accuses its successor, the Congress party, of being soft on terrorism. The desperate spectacle in Mumbai could damage Congress's prospects in pending state polls and even cost it the next general election, which must be held by May. The BJP is now choosing its words carefully but a front-page newspaper advert, presumably commissioned before the Mumbai attacks, accused Congress of being “incapable and unwilling” to fight terror; a sentiment illustrated with a large splatter of blood.
The Indian government, in turn, hopes for restraint from its own people, particularly in crowded, polyglot Mumbai. The metropolis is sometimes called “Maximum City”, because it is always pressed up hard against its limits. Its commuter trains are crushed with passengers each morning; its squalid slums hum with industry and ambition. No other city in India bears such colossal inconveniences with such phlegmatic grace. No Mumbaikar would describe the city as liveable; yet many Mumbaikars cannot imagine living anywhere else.
But this attack on its people and landmarks represents an enormous test of Mumbai’s civic temperament. Its assailants may have wished to provoke a backlash against Muslim inhabitants—which in turn would help to radicalise India’s vast Muslim minority. Even after the last of the terrorists have been killed or captured, that is how they could still hope to win."
That last reflection is what we need more of in our efforts to combat terrorism. We need observers and political leaders who can think past their outrage to consider long term consequences of how we respond.
The Economist is right. A backlash against India's Muslim community or a rush to judgment against Muslim Pakistan's intelligence forces (a rush to judgment that is now a regular pattern among India's Hindu population) without evidence and without discriminate action against only those responsible would be foolhardy and reap serious political consequences, in the long term, especially more civilian and military deaths.
Those responsible should have been confronted better at the time of the attacks, if accounts of military and law enforcement not firing on these terrorist actors are true.
At this point, as much as possible and resonable, any of those conspiring or responsible who are still alive need to be brought to justice alive and face trial. If they must be killed because other options are impossible, then so be it. But we are smarter to bring them to justice, when possible, to avoid polarizing Muslim public opinion and losing support from Muslims in India and in the world, generally, for otherwise worthy efforts.
I can always count on the Economist for clearheaded consideration of these types of events. Living and thinking about these matters in a country that has successfully engaged political efforts to end terrorism gives one some pause for reflection on all the best alternatives to deal with this kind of ugliness.
I don't know enough about the until recently unknown group responsible for these attacks, the Deccan Mujadeen, to know if they can be politically coopted. I know those responsible must be brought to justice. It does appear that part of their grievance has to do with Kashmir, a resolution of which situation - one that would, ideally, involve self-determination for Kashmir, independent of both India and Pakistan - would likely help reduce the basis for such grievances, though groups like this may find grievances where others fall away.
The Foreign Policy blog speculates that the Deccan Mujadeen may be related to the Lashkar-e-Toiba, an Islamist group based out of Lahore, Pakistan and founded in the Kunar provice of Aghanistan, whose grievances are also related to Kashmir, in addition to broader aims of Islamic rule. And the BBC is reporting that the one attacker captured alive, Azam Amir Qasab, is now saying that the group had received training from Lashkar-e-Toiba, a group that has found backing, in the past, from Pakistani intelligence.
Foreign Policy is reporting that terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna is indicating that the Deccan Mujadeen are most likely related to the Indian Mujadeen, an Islamist group responsible for at least 5 attacks in India in 2007 and 2008, and considered a shadow group for Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), who is suspected to be fronted by the Indian Mujadeen and to have been infiltrated by Al Queda. Both groups have strong Islamist claims, in addition to grievances associated with the Kashmiri province, meaning their aims are Islamic rule, in addition to more narrow claims against the Indian government.
I have to say that the emails from the Indian Mujadeen and those claiming to be the Deccan Mujadeed look very different to me.
The Indian Mujadeen emails appear to me to be more directly Islamist in their language, focussing more on the religious grievances of an Islamist group against Hindus fighting Muslim mujadeen and is more offensive in its aims of imposing Islamist "justice" on a recalcitrant Hindu population.
One such email reads:
"... Here we are back - the Mujahideen of India - the terrorists on the disbelievers - the radicals of Islam - after our triumphant and successful assault at Jaipur, once again calling you all, who disbelieve in Allah and His Messenger Muhammad (peace be upon him) to accept Islam and bear witness that there is none to be worshipped except Allah, and that Muhammad (peace be upon him) is the Messenger of Allah. Accept Islam and save yourselves.
O Hindus! O disbelieving faithless Indians! Haven’t you still realized that the falsehood of your 33 crore dirty mud idols and the blasphemy of your deaf, dumb, mute idols are not at all going to save your necks, Insha-Allah, from being slaughtered?
We call you, O Hindus, O enemies of Allah, to take an honest stance with yourselves lest another attack of Ibn-e-Qasim sends shivers down your spines, lest another Ghauri shakes your foundations, and lest another Ghaznawi massacres you, proving your blood to be the cheapest of all mankind! Have you forgotten your history full of subjugation, humiliation, and insult? Or do you want us to repeat it again? Take heed before it is too late!
So wait! ................ Await now……….! Wait only for five minutes from now! .... Wait for the Mujahideen and Fidayeen of Islam and stop them if you can - who will make you feel the terror of Jihad. Feel the havoc cast into your hearts by Allah, the Almighty, face His Dreadful Punishment, and suffer the results of fighting the Muslims and the Mujahideen. Await the anguish, agony, sorrow and pain. Await, only for 5 minutes, to feel the fear of death...".
The Deccan Mujadeen email, on the other hand, emphasizes political grievances and is more defensive in its posture, still referring to the historical political and military conflicts between Hindus and Muslims, but not with the same focus of punishing Hindus for their religious leanings.
From the Deccan Mujadeen email:
"We inform and warn India's government to stop the continuing injustice against the Muslims. Return all the states seized from the Muslims. We are that "nation" that never forgets its history and repeats its history again and again. The fresh examples of which are Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, Somalia and Kashmir.
Whatever you had to do you did that and what we had to endure we endured that … This is now our innings and we won't let it go from our hands. We will play our innings with style …
We know India government won't take this warning seriously…. So we are determined that this warning be made real … You have already seen its vivid example in Mumbai.
Hindus, don't think India's ATS [anti-terror squad] and army are laced with modern weapons and are also courageous.
This attack is a reaction to those actions that Hindus have been carrying out since 1947. There would be no actions now, only reactions. … And it will continue till we take revenge for every injustice done to us. … It will continue till we take back all our seized states …
Hindus now give up thinking that martyring of Muslims' mosques, weakening Muslims' economic condition through riots, and putting educated youths in prison will weaken the confidence. No, not at any cost. …
Mujahideen Hyderabad Deccan"
This email by the Indian Mujadeen from September 13, 2008, reported on in the following Monday in the Deccan Herald, has a more similar political tone, perhaps nullifying that distinction:
"The Indian Mujahideen, which has claimed responsibility for the Delhi, Ahmedabad, Bangalore and Jaipur blasts killing at least 130 people in a span of four months, has now threatened to carry out attacks in Mumbai, report Agencies.
Accusing Mumbai Police’s ATS of harassing Muslims, Indian Mujahideen said in its email that it was closely watching the ATS.
'You should know that your acts are not at all left unnoticed; rather we are closely keeping an eye on you and just waiting for the right time to execute your bloodshed. We are aware of your recent raids at Ansarnagar, Mograpada in Andheri and the harassment and trouble you created there for the Muslims,' the group said in the email they sent to various media houses on Saturday evening.
'You threatened to murder them and your mischief went to such an extent that you even dared to abuse and insult Maulana Mahmood-ul-Hasan Qasmi and even misbehaved with the Muslim women and children there,' the email said.
'If this is the degree your arrogance has reached, and if you think that by these stunts you can scare us, then let the Indian Mujahideen warn all the people of Mumbai that whatever deadly attacks Mumbaikars will face in future, their responsibility would lie with the Mumbai ATS and their guardians – Vilasrao Deshmukh and R R Patil,' the email said. 'You are already on our hit-list and this time very very seriously.'
The terror outfit also threatened to target a senior Rajasthan police official. 'All the Mujahideen who shook Jaipur are absolutely safe and secure, and are preparing for our next targets, one of which is A K Jain – the DIG of Rajasthan,' claimed Indian Mujahideen.
Jain has been instrumental in arresting several SIMI members in Rajasthan in connection with the May 13 serial blasts in Jaipur. The mail bears two signatures at the end – Guru Alhindi and al-Arbi."
I don't really know if this is a distinction enough to make a difference. Either the Indian Mujadeen are resposible or they are not. But it does cast some doubt in my mind that this might be the case, especially since the Indian Mujadeen is also a very recently organized group for grievances that I'm sure are widespread throughout India and Pakistan. Meaning groups could crop up anywhere and without notice, until attacks occur. Meaning it still could be an independent group. Hard to know.
What I do know is that those responsible must be brought to justice. I would highly advise that they be killed only if other options are unreasonably dangerous. The political and potential military consequences of capture (meaning more civilians and military personell killed) versus killing those responsible are serious enough to give pause to those who would seek to shoot first and ask questions later.
The resolution of Kashmir needs attention completely independent of these attacks. But working on a resolution of that problem would likely undermine a significant source of grievance for such groups. I don't know enough about India's political system to know in what ways opening up their political process might dissuade Muslims (and Hindu nationalists) from violence, but it is worth exploring.
The more the Indian government stays focussed on bringing those responsible to justice and not on retaliation, the more cooperation they are likely to get from the Muslim population and the less likely they are to engage in the kind of attack that might alienate and radicalize Muslims in the way the Economist is describing in this article. The resolution of Kashmir nor any other political effort should be done in haste as some kind of reinforcement for this behavior. But, long term, finally resolving that matter will go a long way to undermining the political oxygen for groups like this.
Let us hope that the Indian government takes measured action that will leave the people of Mumbai, India, and others more safe rather than less safe as a consequence. We saw how terrorists could provoke a mature democracy like the United States into missteps following 9/11. I am concerned that a more volatile and less grounded democracy like India's will be similarly provoked.
Mistakes will be made. Though, in this game, they have very grave consequences. The most important priority is that they be avoided as much as possible, because people die when they are made, and that we learn from them when they are made, and when people die as a consequence.
There are many in America, today, who are still unwilling to acknowledge our mistakes post-9/11.
But the hopeful fact of American democracy that I pray will be true of India, as well, is that enough people recognized problems in our responses that a reconsideration is being made in the United States for how we respond more thoughtfully and less reactively to future threats.
Let us hope that India follows the wise advice from the Economist, here, and avoids mistakes that could cost more lives.
